Tampa, Florida-based The Mosaic Company (MOS) produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Valued at a market cap of $11.3 billion, the company plays a critical role in the agricultural supply chain by helping farmers increase crop yields and food production.

Companies worth $10 billion or more are typically classified as “large-cap stocks,” and MOS fits the label perfectly, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the agricultural inputs industry. The company's key strength lies in its vertically integrated operations across the phosphate and potash value chains, allowing it to control production costs and ensure supply reliability. It also stands out for its product innovation, offering specialized fertilizers like MicroEssentials that combine multiple nutrients into a single granule for improved crop performance.

This fertiliser manufacturing company is currently trading 5.7% below its 52-week high of $37.69, reached on Jun. 4. MOS has rallied 28.6% over the past three months, considerably outpacing the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLB) 1.3% rise during the same time frame.

In the longer term, MOS has surged 22.1% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming XLB’s 2.4% drop over the same time frame. Moreover, on a YTD basis, shares of MOS are up 44.6%, compared to XLB’s 4.2% return. 

To confirm its bullish trend, MOS has been trading above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages since mid-April. 

On May 6, MOS delivered mixed Q1 earnings results, and its shares surged 3.7% in the following trading session. The company posted revenue of $2.6 billion, down 2.2% from the year-ago quarter and 1.9% below the consensus estimates. The shortfall was primarily driven by lower potash segment sales, largely fueled by a decline in selling prices.

Nonetheless, on the brighter side, while its adjusted earnings dropped 24.6% year-over-year to $0.49 per share due to a decline in adjusted EBITDA, the figure still surpassed the analyst estimates by a notable margin of 25.6%. Significant improvements in operational efficiency and ongoing cost-reduction efforts led to its bottom-line beat. Additionally, MOS raised its fiscal 2025 potash production forecast to a range of 9 to 9.4 million tonnes, aiming to capitalize on strong global demand and favorable market pricing.

Mosaic Company’s outperformance looks pronounced when compared to its rival, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR), which gained 12.9% over the past 52 weeks and 32.8% on a YTD basis. 

Looking at MOS’ recent outperformance, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy” from the 16 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $38.38 suggests an 8% premium to its current price levels.