Before Wall Street even had its morning coffee on Monday, June 23, Estée Lauder (EL) stole the spotlight. There was no press release or major announcement, just a shift in perception. Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers upgraded the beauty titan from “Hold” to “Buy.” 

Shares jumped nearly 5% on the news, leaving the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) trailing behind. What triggered this sudden optimism was Powers’ conviction that Estée Lauder’s international expansion plans, particularly those extending beyond China, are finally bearing fruit. 

Powers acknowledged not just the strength of the company’s diversified product portfolio, but also the fact that its heavy lifting on the investment front, particularly in supply-chain management, appears complete. For a company that has spent the past year in the penalty box, this upgrade marks a much-needed reversal of sentiment. 

About Estée Lauder Stock

Headquartered in New York, Estée Lauder is no stranger to luxury. Its product lines, ranging from skincare and makeup to fragrance and hair care, are household names in premium beauty. The company’s brand roster reads like a who’s who of luxury, from Clinique and Bobbi Brown to La Mer and Tom Ford Beauty. 

With a market capitalization of $28.4 billion, the company operates squarely in the prestige segment. Yet prestige alone has not spared it from market turbulence. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has lost 33% of its value. 

However, in a surprising twist of momentum, EL stock has rebounded 21% in the past month, reflecting a growing conviction that the worst may be behind.

Despite recent challenges, EL stock trades at 51 times forward adjusted earnings and 1.7 times sales, far above sector norms, implying that investors are pricing in a premium rebound. These elevated multiples reflect confidence in its brand moat, margin recovery, and global strategy.

Meanwhile, the firm's commitment to shareholders remains consistent. The company pays an annual dividend of $1.71, yielding 2.17%. Most recently, a quarterly payout of $0.35 was issued on June 16 to shareholders on record as of May 30, further signaling confidence from the inside out.

Estée Lauder Surpasses Q3 Earnings

Estée Lauder’s fiscal 2025 Q3 results, released on May 1, pulled back the curtain on a firm still navigating choppy waters but proving it can stay the course. Revenue came in at $3.55 billion, a 9.9% decline year-over-year (YOY), but still beat analysts' expectations of $3.51 billion. The same story held for earnings. Adjusted EPS landed at $0.65, a 33% drop from last year’s quarter but more than double Wall Street’s forecast of $0.29. 

Segment-wise, the breakdown reveals the battle within. Skincare, the company’s largest and most closely watched division, recorded $1.8 billion in sales, a 12% drop weighed down by persistent headwinds in Asia’s travel retail sector and lagging demand for high-end products like Estée Lauder and La Mer. 

Consumer caution in China only made matters worse. Fragrance, usually a reliable performer, also faltered. Sales declined 3% to $557 million. Haircare did not fare any better, falling 12% to $126 million.

Looking forward, analysts expect Q4 EPS of just $0.05, down a steep 92% YOY. But the tide is forecast to turn. For the next quarter, EPS is projected at $0.22, marking a 57% improvement. While full-year fiscal 2025 EPS is expected to decline 43% to $1.47, fiscal year 2026 is anticipated to bring a 46% jump to $2.14, offering a potential inflection point for investors who can stomach short-term volatility.

What Do Analysts Expect for Estée Lauder Stock?

Not everyone on Wall Street is ready to pop the champagne, but some are holding a glass. Deutsche Bank has staked out the optimistic stance, assigning a price target of $95, grounded in confidence over Estée Lauder’s international strategy and future cash flow potential.

Still, the broader consensus remains cautious, assigning EL stock an overall “Hold" rating. Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, three rate it a “Strong Buy” and one analyst opts for a “Moderate Buy.” The clear majority of 21 analysts calls shares a “Hold.” 

The Street-high target of $100 represents potential upside of nearly 30%. If momentum builds, EL stock could not only touch but move well beyond the $95 mark, assuming the bullish narrative plays out.